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HomeMy WebLinkAboutEmail from John Thomas – US Wildfire Cost-Plus-Loss Economics Project, 1 Pager Checklist Schuman, Amy From: Menchaca, Clarissa Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2019 4:22 PM To: Schuman, Amy Subject: FW: (PDF) U.S.Wildfire Cost-Plus-Loss Economics Project:The "One-Pager" Checklist Correspondence. Cloteiiksa,Mevtchaccv Associate Clerk of the Board Butte County Administration 25 County Center Drive,Suite 200, Oroville, CA 95965 T: 530.552.3 3081 F: 530.538.7120 Twitter I Facebook I YouTube I Pinterest From:John Thomas<solimarfishjohn@gmail.com> Sent:Wednesday, December 12, 2018 3:49 PM To:Clerk of the Board <clerkoftheboard@buttecounty.net> Subject: (PDF) U.S. Wildfire Cost-Plus-Loss Economics Project:The "One-Pager" Checklist https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237396187 US_Wildfire_Cost-Plus- Loss Economics_Project The One-Pager Checklist?IatestCitations=PB:329170971: This is certainly a good read for Butte county leaders. This report and forms are free to be used by anyone. There is no place or site extant to report to. That is the bailiwick of the entity that uses the form, or a form of their own design. The people who put their time and effort into this were retired, and it was presented to the Oregon Board of Forestry which was not interested. However, at the time it was presented, Oregon had not undergone the recent spate of fires in excess of 100,000 acres or more. Fortunately for Oregon, there have been no real deadly fires that have displaced thousands. That will come. Fires are not climate or weather. Fires are fuels that have been ignited by some source, usually lightning or utility failures. Sometimes it is a vehicle wreck, a burn barrel set fire without caution. How they start is of consequence, but hardly the same impact as what remains or does not remain post fire. Our concern(I was a part of the paper, but only have a BS in History, so was not a listed writer) was that fires were being reported by the Federal government only as to their direct costs of fighting the fire. No mention, ever, by the Feds of timber value lost, the"loss of grandeur of the landscape" (a compensable loss configured by the US Attorney offices in Sacramento and S.F. pursuing civil damages for fire started by private agency and owners, persons), and all the costs that show up later as deferred costs and losses. The "one pager" was the result. 1 The "one pager" is a simple self reporting form. It is an outlet for victims. It lets them tell the world of their loss, in their words, in their estimate of value. That has to happen for people and communities to heal. It has nothing to do with getting paid or assisted or compensated for their losses. It is merely a way and place for people to make what they believe a part of a record. A voice, if you will. There is no cost or use fee. Just copy the one page, create your own instructions, your own process to report, and how and what will happen with the information. There is no monetary solution for anyone who submits a form. Any person, company, business, any non profit entity. It is a statement of loss in their minds, in their own words. One would hope from that a more realistic cost and loss to the Camp Fire would be used to help governments, communities, in their work to prevent future fires of this nature and magnitude. A reporter can write about a family, a survivor, but that is not even a snapshot of the vast loss and cost to thousands and thousands of people, losses that are Iife changing, that are deadly in the future. But when you can have a stack of"one pagers"on the desk, the lectern, with a reported total loss from the people who actually suffered the losses stated, with a name and a real person having written their statement of cost and loss, you case is more powerful for change and progress. All I ask is that you read the information and if you think it with value, present it to one or more of your very, very busy commissioners for further review. If not for now, think about it for down the road. There will be more fire, more loss, because fuels grow every year, even in droughts, more so in wet years, and accumulate. Always, it is fuel that produces the fire. Not climate. Fire is more a function of geography: ocean, coast range, rain shadow from coast range, river, foothills, Cascades and Sierras, down slope winds, BoyIe's law, tilt of the planet with the sun, ever changing diurnal period, and the ever growing population of people with a need for a place to call home, shelter, a job, work, the care of a society. I thank you for your time in reading this email. I hope my contribution might help someone, somewhere, sometime. John Thomas,Jr 246 B st Independence, OR 97351 503 551 0437 2 See discussions,stats,and author profoles for this publication at:hi tp;.(/veviN.rescorchgate.n ee!publicaInnj:373S1,1a7 U.S. Wildfire Cost-Plus-Loss Economics Project: The "One-Pager" Checklist Article•January 2009 CITATION READS 6 82 4 authors,including: Hop lybed� r:r vtiv.OR WCV otg 7 COnLICATION5 11 CITATIONS SEE P17OFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Oregon Coast bangs Fire History VIM,project rny�, V.S.,ArilSIire Cost-Plus-Loss Economics Project View project All content following this page was uploaded by Svb Zynach on 10 June 201S. Tlrm user hos requested wrhunuement ui ih,dowrtluuded flie. r •.``..',,,&';• 4',t<? ",4-'' �: fi . -A4,,,,---'p::' ..'., ,,,-.r"'•'" ‘4".". -e%--"`— <-'-').'''''' 4�'"N �,i. Wildland 5�at,_ f �. Fire a wife V.,`,4,— Lessons Learned Center U.S. Wildfire Cost-Plus-Loss Economics Project: The "One- Pager" Checklist By Bob Zybach, Michael Dubrasich, Gregory Brenner, John Marker i °' t.i.2009 Topics: Economics, Fire Management, Research Resources What are the actual costs of a wildfire? Official Forest Service tallies usually include suppression expenses only. Media reports sometimes include estimates of damage to homes and infrastructure. But the economic impacts of wildfires are far-reaching and new (and old) research shows the need for improved cost estimates of wildfire. Large wildfires consume more than just suppression expenses ("costs") —they also do measurable short- and long-term damages ("loss") to public and private equity and resources. Traditional fire appraisal uses the term "cost-plus-loss"to account for all the economic impacts of wildfire. This econometric analysis method is sometimes expressed as LCD (least cost plus damage) or C+NVC (costs plus net value change). The goal (economic utility) of fire suppression is to minimize cost-plus-loss. Total US Wildfire Acres1981-2008,and U SF S F ire Expenditures 1970-2008 12000 2.500 — F 10.000 a r —2;000 n,; t ii C: co 8.000 B A , 1\11 1,500 wi E.- e,�Ol7 5 ,,\" - 11 u. A ▪ 4,000 2,000 0 0 C9 Q! l� Sl 8 1 a Recently analysts, government officials, and the media have drawn increasing attention to the escalating frequency, severity, and costs over and above fire suppression associated with large-scale forest wildfires [I] — including losses of human lives,homes, pets, crops, livestock and environmental damage. • The Western Forestry Leadership Coalition recently released a report entitled "The True Cost of Wildfire in the Western U.S." (Dale et al 2009). The authors examined six major US wildfires, and compared suppression costs and tactics with "total costs."Two examples of this process were the 2000 Cerro Grande fire in New Mexico (shown to have suppression costs that reflected only 3% of total damage estimates), and the 2003 Old, Grand Prix, and Padua fire complex in California, in which suppression costs were only 7% of total costs to date—with total losses expected to increase dramatically in years to come (Dunn et al, 2005). • The 2003 fires in San Diego and Southern California were a disaster by any measure— 24 fatalities, over 3,700 homes destroyed.At the time,the costs of the suppression efforts were staggering, $43 million. However, Matt Rahn, a researcher from San Diego State University, recently presented findings that put this figure at less than 2% of the total long-term cost of the fire (Rahn, 2009). • The Hayman Fire (2002) burned 138,000 acres and cost $42,279,000 ($307/acre) to suppress. But Professor Dennis Lynch of Colorado State University estimated that an additional $187,500,000 ($1,358/acre) in losses had accrued within a year. Suppression costs were only 18% of the total, and Dr. Lynch stated, "I recognized the need to follow costs into subsequent years to more completely identify a fire's true impact" (Lynch, 2004). To date, our own findings paint a far different picture than that commonly reported by the media or understood by the public.We have found that total short-term and long- term cost-plus-loss attributed to wildfires typically attains amounts that are ten to 50 times (or more) reported suppression expenses. p. 1> t i`' The Pacific Crest Trail,Mount a �' 1 " I P :q +. Jefferson Wilderness.4rea.2004. {•- ? In addition to being unsightly and k .. ems` e., Y 4 dangerous due to the threat of r- E falling limbs.bs.frees and I. 44r reburning,much of this trail 1}� M'q 1 . I segment has been closed or \y! ?.' , dr I difficult to traverse since the 2003 s : -,,r x y B&B Fire Coinplex.(Photo:B. „ii2ybcrch). "i ,- is c ' - } , i �� Losses in excess of suppression costs include economic damages to timber and forage values,wildlife habitat and populations (including endangered species and their critically protected habitat), air and water quality, recreational opportunities, public health, private businesses, and other resources and amenities important to all citizens. The National Association of Forest Service Retirees issued"Forest Health and Fire: An Overview and Evaluation" (Pfilf et al., 2002)that documented and analyzed the recent historic increases in US wildfire occurrences and severity. The report called for a detailed accounting of"total losses associated with fire and other forest health situations," specifically mentioning homes, evacuations, insurance claims, natural resources, recreation, water, forest health, timber, habitat,wildlife, management costs, subsequent increases of insects and disease. Appraisal of resources damaged by wildfire is not always straightforward. Human lives and adverse health effects are usually not considered in terms of dollar losses at all, and tallies of wildlife fatalities are rarely done. Habitat, scenery, ecosystem services, and other non-commodities are difficult to value, although there has been considerable study and published efforts in that regard. Rarely has there been any attempt to quantify the long-term consequences of a damaged renewable resource base to provide for the needs of an ever increasing present and future human society (e.g. Bowman et al. 2009). Consideration of an inclusive and comprehensive cost-plus-loss evaluation could be a helpful exercise when evaluating suppression/readiness need and effectiveness appropriation.We offer an operational methodology to better characterize the broader true costs to society of large-scale wildfires: typically, those fires involving loss of human life,thousands of acres in size, and/or millions of dollars of damage. This article focuses on practical uses of a "first step"tool we have developed — a one-page checklist—that can be employed by local citizens, media,fire managers, and elected officials to begin the process of better accounting for short-term and long-term effects of wildfires on US lives and economies.We use comprehensive "cost-plus-loss" accounting methods and consider direct, indirect, and post-fire costs and losses. We have developed eleven separate ledger categories of costs and losses that are reflected in the general ledger, and these same categories are listed in the "one-pager" checklist (see Table 1), as further described in the following.Within each ledger category, costs and losses are characterized as direct, indirect, and post-fire. Direct costs. These are the amounts spent directly controlling a wildfire (suppression) and wildfire-related expenses, such as evacuations, commerce disruption, equipment damage,burnt homes, cars, and personal property, school and playground closures, additional air quality monitoring, public health alerts, or other costs directly related (and generally concurrent)to the fire. Indirect costs.These have been typically over-looked in accounting for wildfire damages in earlier reports. Indirect costs include amortized wildfire preparedness expenditures such as crew training costs, equipment and supply outlays and depletion planning, and fire insurance premiums. Damage to capital investments such as recreational structures, devalued experiences, investments in forest management (reforestation,thinning) agriculture (crop establishment and treatments), past property taxes, reduced air and water quality, and changed landscape aesthetics are other indirect costs.This category considers indirect costs that are concurrent to a wildfire; i.e., accrued as the fire occurs. [2] Post-fire costs. These are the long-term damages (losses), direct and indirect, to society and the environment. These include capital value losses to timber, agriculture, homes, and other public and private equity. Some post-fire losses can be difficult to quantify, and may only become apparent over time. Long-term human health effects, increased costs of medical care, reduced property values due to wildfire smoke damage, rehabilitation costs for publicly and privately damaged facilities, negative impacts on affected livelihoods, and sediment management costs in reservoirs subjected to increased soil erosion are examples of post-fire costs that may be attributed to specific wildfire events.Yet to be fully documented are wildfire smoke emission effects on possible climate change. These are the eleven categories, with basic definitions,that are used in the checklist "one-pager," and in the comprehensive ledger: 1. Suppression costs. These costs are the ones most commonly reported by media (to the exclusion of other costs and losses) and are often under-reported at that. Typical costs include wages,transportation, equipment, services, supplies, etc. Special costs, such as equipment depreciation, communications interruptions, and emergency evacuations, need to be accounted for, as well. Indirect suppression costs include emergency preparedness measures, supply purchases, crew training, and equipment maintenance. Post-fire costs and losses include equipment repair, supplies replacement, formal reviews, and possible medical treatments and hospitalization of personnel. 2. Property Damage and destruction to federal, state, county, private, and municipal structures and facilities are major losses attributed to wildfires,particularly when transportation networks and communications systems are considered. Damage to timber and agricultural crops are other direct property losses. Some structural losses to private property may be insured; these can include business properties and homes, vehicles, and livestock. Capital goods and equipment damage and depreciation, evacuation expenses, and other losses are directly related to fire and smoke damage. Indirect losses include pre-fire insurance premium payments,building and landscape maintenance expenses, firefighting equipment purchases, and fire-related business closures. Post-fire losses include salvage, clean-up, rehabilitation, and repair expenses, equipment and capital goods replacement, drinking water pollution, smoke damage, deflated real estate values, lost sales tax revenues, and fire insurance premium increases. 3. Public health. These are some of the most overlooked and potentially costly areas associated with wildfire (and resultant smoke) damage. In addition to fatalities, wildfire smoke inhalation is known to cause and exacerbate a wide range of human health problems, including asthma, emphysema, and heart disease. Medical equipment, health-related evacuations, ambulance charges, and hospitalization are some of the direct health losses related to wildfire. Indirect losses include health insurance premiums, pre-fire medical equipment purchases, and medical personnel training. Post- fire losses include long-term health effects and increased health care expenses, insurance premium adjustments, health-related work absenteeism, survivor benefits, and even funeral and burial costs. 4. Vegetation. Standing timber Iosses have often been considered in wildfire damage estimates, but loss of future harvests from destruction of growing stock has been less frequently accounted for. On public lands losses include destruction of forage on grazing lands, secondary forest products destruction and/or degradation, and loss or degradation of wildlife habitat (including endangered species populations and protected habitats). On private land vegetation losses include timber and agricultural crops burned or impacted by wildfire smoke, such as wine grapes. Indirect losses include mortality of growing stock,the pre-fire investments used to establish or maintain such stock (such as nursery or planting costs and fencing), and irrigation systems. Post-fire losses include seeding, planting, and other revegetation costs,landscape rehabilitation, lost timber growth, and related product sales,business,job, and tax losses. 5. Wildlife. In addition to mortality of forest, range, and aquatic wildlife populations, direct losses include damage and destruction to a wide variety of common or protected habitats and to such amenities as viewing areas and feeding stations. Indirect losses include damage and destruction to pre-fire habitat improvement projects, population enhancement costs, and investments in wildlife research. Post-fire costs include reduced population productivity, foregone game management income,habitat restoration expenses, and related business,job, and tax losses. The loss of listed endangered animals and their habitat is included here. 6. Water. Direct losses include water usage for suppression action, local water system shutdowns, and reductions in drinking water, hydropower, and irrigation supplies and sales. Indirect losses are related to pre-fire planning, system investments, and wildfire- related pollution control devices. Post-fire losses include degradation of domestic water, irrigation, and hydropower supplies, system repairs, administrative costs, sediment and pollution controls and mitigation, and long-term changes in water yield and watershed ability to collect and store water. Tillamook firesmoke,plume,August a4,t933.Inasingle i ' ;. day the 1933 Tillamook Fire increased more than •• 4)0 000-acres in siie,creating a mushr•oam cloud 40 4 miles wide and 8 miles high andpr•educing hurricane- ' 4.,%; �. -n . scale winds that fiu•ihered the spread of the fire.This cloud was formed largely by water uopor,ash,soil, carbon monoxide,and carbon dioxide in nearly immeasurable amounts and proportions(Photo:The rr' ' Oregonian,courtesy of Oregon Department of Forestry). • � - 14 � " 7'1'727. + 7. Air and atmospheric effects. Direct losses are related to air pollution, including particulate, noxious gases, and CO2 emissions, and visibility impacts to road and air transportation, especially if delays and/or accidents result. Indirect Iosses are related to public health effects, property damage, and compromised recreational opportunities. Post-fire losses include additional air pollution controls, carbon mitigation costs, added administrative overhead, and future reductions in business,job, and tax revenues. S. Soil-related effects. Soil erosion can occur during a wildfire due to fire-induced wind, or from suppression actions. Soils can be baked, as well. Indirect losses include investments in fertilization, scientific research, and planning. Post-fire losses include decreased soil productivity, increased soil erosion, and post-fire soil rehabilitation, erosion and sediment mitigation, and project administration. 9. Recreation and aesthetics. Campground closures, evacuations, recreation-related business shutdowns, and structural assets damages and destruction are direct recreation losses attributable to wildfires. Indirect losses include pre-fire recreation-related investments by agencies,businesses, and individuals. Post-fire losses include recreational activity decline, degradation of scenic values, compromised hunting, fishing, hiking, camping, and wildlife viewing experiences, recreation-related structural repair or rehabilitation, and reduced business income,jobs, and tax revenues. to. Energy. Direct losses include transmission line shutdowns and resultant loss of metered power sales, destruction and damage to energy production and transmission systems, and loss of biomass energy supplies. Indirect losses include pre-fire investments in energy production facilities and transmission systems and power planning costs. Post-fire losses include energy sales reductions, equipment repair, added sediment control, and future business,job, and tax revenue losses. i. Heritage (cultural and historical resources). These losses include damage and destruction of historical resources and pre-Contact archaeological sites,loss or damage to historic cultural trail systems, ceremonial sites, and sacred sites, and heritage-related business shutdowns. Indirect losses include pre-fire public and private investments in heritage resources, including formal evaluations, research, and structural improvements. Post-fire losses include heritage site rehabilitation and repair costs, devaluation of cultural and spiritual assets, the loss of traditional uses and heritage,lost research opportunities to gather limited and fragile information, and heritage-related business,job, and tax revenue declines. Conclusions US wildfire events have become increasingly large, destructive, and costly during the past 20 years, and particularly since the turn of the century. During this time wildfire suppression costs have also increased dramatically. Suppression costs, however, represent only a small fraction of over-all wildfire cost-plus-loss. Other concurrent direct and indirect losses together with long-term post-fire losses can total 10 to So times (or more) the suppression costs.A more comprehensive economic and risk analysis and awareness on the part of decision-makers and the public of wildfire cost- plus-losses is needed, as are land and property management reforms, to help reverse these trends. Our one-page checklist is intended to make initial estimates of total fire costs, and to ultimately be used in conjunction with a more comprehensive ledger for better tracking costs and losses over time. We believe that the use of these tools will better inform land and resource managers in the management of fuels and wildfires by identifying true costs of decisions and allowing better judgment in the establishment of resource use priorities. How to Use the Cost-Plus-Loss Checklist The checklist is meant to help expand the discussion regarding the overall, long-term impacts of wildfire. Use the category descriptions to start the search for information regarding wider wildfire impacts on areas of concern in your community. Fully accounting for impacts under each of these categories is difficult, as data and information are often difficult to obtain, but some is available with a little digging. 1. Start by checking off all those items that don't apply. 2. Next,insert readily available numbers, particularly those quoting "experts"in the local media. Human fatalities, acres, and other data can also be acquired in this manner. 3. Insert"placeholder" estimates for precise numbers becoming known — such as final suppression costs, insurance payments, etc. This sub-total would be near the lowest end range of values for damage from a particular event. 4. Insert estimates for unknown or long-term costs, such as wildlife habitat loss, public health effects, air pollution, etc. Contact local experts for estimates, or even rough estimates in a range of values. 5. Continue to update list as better information becomes available—whether via existing sources, research, or a combination of the two utilizing the general ledger. References Bonnicksen,Thomas M. 2008. The Forest Carbon And Emissions Model. The Forest Foundation,Auburn, CA: Reports 1 &2, Overview and Technical Information - 28 p., Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Four California Wildfires: Opportunities to Prevent and Reverse Environmental and Climate Impacts - 19 p. Bowman, David M., Jennifer K. Balch, Paulo Artaxo, William J. Bond, Jean M. Carlson, Mark A. Cochrane, Carla M. D'Antonio, Ruth S. DeFries, John C. Doyle, Sandy P. Harrison, Fay H. Johnston, Jon E. Keeley, Meg A. Krawchuk, Christian A. Kull, Brad Marston, Max A. Moritz, I. Colin Prentice, Christopher I. Roos,Andrew C. Scott, Thomas W. Swetnam, Guido R. van der Werf, and Stephen J. Pyne 2009. "Fire in the Earth System," Science,Vol_ 324, No. 5926: 481 —484. Dale, Lisa 2009.The True Cost of Wildfire in the Western U.S. Western Forestry Leadership Coalition, Lakewood, Colorado: 16 pp. Dubrasich, Michael, Bob Zybach, Greg Brenner, and John Marker 2009. U.S. Wildfire Cost-Plus-Loss Economics Project: Long-form Accounting Ledger. In Review. Lynch, Dennis L. 2004. "What do Forest Fires Really Cost?"Journal of Forestry, September 2004. Pfilf, Richard J.,John F. Marker, and Robert D.Averill 2002. Forest Health and Fire: An Overview and Evaluation.National Association of Forest Service Retirees, Chantilly, Virginia: 36 pp. [x]It is beyond the scope of this article to examine or discuss the possible causes of recent escalations in wildfire occurrences, suppression costs, or cumulative damages — only to acknowledge these facts, which are well documented in numerous publications and other media. [2] Although we have standardized costs to dollar figures, values place on human lives, aesthetics, or pollution, as examples, are often highly subjective and difficult or impossible to quantify. Their inclusion in the checklist is simply to acknowledge their existence, and to allow for users to better consider such values in context with other wildfire impacts.A more specific example is provided by current concern with greenhouse gas emissions related to wildfire smoke. Thomas M. Bonnicksen has developed a mathematical model used for estimating the amount of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) emitted by forest fires (Bonnicksen 2009). Using his model, he estimated that the 66,000-acre Moonlight Fire (2007) on the Plurnas National Forest generated nearly 5 million tons of greenhouse gases. How can this amount be expressed in dollar terms?Will cap-and-trade legislation currently before the US Congress affect such an evaluation?The same model was used to calculate that 40 million tons of greenhouse gases were released or will be released as the dead wood decays that resulted from the 800,000 acre Idaho Batholith fires of 2007, and that the 1.34 million acres that burned in wildfires in California in 2008 generated CO2 emissions equivalent to approximately 13 million cars driven all year. The checklist is not intended to answer these questions, but to account for them and put them in context. Advances in Fire Practice is a sub-site of wildfirelessons.net and is focused on bringing efforts and ideas to the forefront that leaders in the fire management, practice, and research Wildland communities have identified as innovative and widely applicable. It provides access to critical and proven fire information and resources. Advances in Fire Practice section can Fite be reached directly by going to htto://www.wildfirelessons.net/AFP.asox or through the main Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center website at www.wildfirelessons.net. Lessons The Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center actively promotes a learning culture for the Learned purpose of enhancing safe and effective work practices in the entire U.S. wildland Fire Center community. It is located at the National Advanced Fire&Resource institute in Tucson, Arizona. Table 1. Wildfire `Cost-Plus-Loss' Ledger Checklist Form Fire Name County State Country Ignition Date Containment Date Total Acres Cause: Human , Lightning_,Operation_,Prescription_,Maintenance_,Other Major Landowner(s) Human Fatalities Homes Lost ,16 Cost Plus Loss Categoiy A:Direct! B.Indirect. C Pos€`Fre 1.Suppression Costs a.Public b.Tribal/Private 2.Property Damage a.Public b.Tribal/Private 3.Health Effects a.Public b.Tribal/Private 4.Vegetation a.Public b.Tribal/Private 5.Wildlife a.Public b.Tribal/Private 6.Water a.Public b.TribaVPrivate 7.Air and Atmospheric a.Public b.Tribal/Private S.Soil-Related a.Public b.Tribal/Private 9.Recreation a.Public b.TribaVPrivate 10.Energy a.Public b.Tribal/Private 11.Heritage a.Public b.Tribal/Private Totals; Name Title Affiliation Date C 2009 Dubrasich,Zybach,Brenner,Marker,&Thomas