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HomeMy WebLinkAbout03.27.20 Email from Danette York - Butte County Bed Estimate for COVID-19 Surge From:York, Danette To:Alpert, Bruce;Bennett, Robin;Clerk of the Board;Connelly, Bill;Cook, Holly;Lambert, Steve;Lucero, Debra; McCracken, Shari;Ring, Brian;Ritter, Tami;Rodas, Amalia;Sweeney, Kathleen;Teeter, Doug;McCracken, Shari Cc:Miller, Andrew Subject:Bed estimate Date:Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:05:55 AM Dear Supervisors, First, let me say thanks for your continued support and patience as we work through this pandemic. Recently, we were asked if Public Health is doing any local modeling. This email is to provide you with some very rough modeling numbers concerning how many hospital beds Butte County may need during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic and to let you know we are working very closely with our hospitals on surge planning. Please understand that these modeling numbers are from a simple exercise using the State’s modeling numbers and we do not have all the background information on what model they used to get their numbers. The State has assured us that they will forward county specific numbers but we cannot be sure if/when that will occur. The numbers can and WILL change based on modeling techniques so do not be surprised if these numbers change in the future based on more sophisticated modeling techniques. We used this simple technique only to get a rough estimate and to start a planning conversation that takes us beyond the hospitals’ already established surge plans. Below the table, I explain the numbers in the table: ButteButte + CAOnlysurrounding Peak daily hospital beds62099344440 Peak daily ICU beds19875110141 The numbers are for hospital beds needed for COVID-19 patients ONLY. This does not account for the beds hospitals use on a daily basis for all other illnesses/injuries. Based on the simple modeling technique explained above, IF our local hospitals only served Butte County residents we would need 344 regular daily hospital beds for COVID patients during the peak. Of those 344 hospital beds, we would need 110 of them to be Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds. Of course, our hospitals do serve more than just Butte County residents so that is why the second column “Butte + Surrounding” is in the table. Assuming that practice continues during the peak of COVID-19 cases, we would need 440 regular daily hospital beds for COVID patients and of those, we would need 141 of them to be ICU beds. Again, we are working closely with our hospitals to plan for surge capacity. The hospitals do already have a surge capacity plan. These simple modeling numbers will allow us to work with them and their plans to determine if there is a need to search for more capacity. We fully expect there to be a need to plan for more beds; there is more work to be done for sure but we wanted to update you on what we are doing. Please note again: these numbers are rough and will change. They are being used only to further planning and preparedness efforts. I recommend that they not be shared widely at this time, but share that planning and preparedness discussions are taking place among Public Health, Hospitals and other Healthcare Providers. If you do decide to share the actual numbers, understand that will generate more questions that we most likely will be unable to answer at this time. Thanks again for your continued support! Sincerely, Danette York Public Health Director BUTTE COUNTY PUBLIC HEALTH 202 Mira Loma Drive | Oroville, CA 95965 T:530.552.3820 COVID-19 Call Center: 530.552.3050 open 8 am – 5 pm everyday “Nationally Accredited, 09/13/17” FACEBOOK | TWITTER COUNTY OF BUTTE E-MAIL DISCLAIMER: This e-mail and any attachment thereto may contain private, confidential, and privileged material for the sole use of the intended recipient. Any review, copying, or distribution of this e-mail (or any attachments thereto) by other than the County of Butte or the intended recipient is strictly prohibited. If you are NOT the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately and permanently delete the original and any copies of this e-mail and any attachments thereto.