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HomeMy WebLinkAbout09.22.20 Email from Brian Ring SYASL COVID-19 Update From:Ring, Brian To:Alpert, Bruce;Bennett, Robin;Clerk of the Board;Connelly, Bill;Cook, Holly;Lambert, Steve;Lucero, Debra; McCracken, Shari;Paulsen, Shaina;Pickett, Andy;Ring, Brian;Ritter, Tami;Rodas, Amalia;Sweeney, Kathleen; Teeter, Doug Cc:McCracken, Shari;Pickett, Andy;Snyder, Ashley Subject:FW: SYASL COVID-19 Update Date:Tuesday, September 22, 2020 4:57:37 PM Attachments:SYASL COVID-19 Update 9.22.20.pdf Good afternoon Board – FYI. Brian Ring Assistant Chief Administrative Officer Administration 25 County Center Drive, Oroville, CA 95965 From: SYASL County Info <SYASLCountyInfo@SYASLpartners.com> Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2020 4:45 PM To: SYASL County Info <SYASLCountyInfo@SYASLpartners.com> Subject: SYASL COVID-19 Update ATTENTION: This message originated from outside Butte County. Please exercise judgment before opening .. attachments, clicking on links, or replying. To: County Administrative Officers and Interested Parties From: Paul J. Yoder and Karen Lange Date: September 22, 2020 RE: SYASL COVID-19 Update Please find attached our daily SYASL COVID-19 update. -Paul and Karen COVID-19 Updates www.covid19.ca.gov September 22, 2020 Newsom Administration - Resources / Mutual Aid / Executive Orders Today, California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly provided an update on COVID-19 in California. You may view slides here and SYASL staff notes here. here for the latest guidance documents. Wildfires 22, 2020, here. Legislative / Budget News The Department of Finance has released their September Finance Bulletin. They report that personal income tax cash receipts for August totaled $5.974 billion which is up $975 million from the projected $4.999 billion. Sales and use tax receipts totaled $2.262 billion which is up $574 million from the projected $2.086 billion. Corporation tax cash receipts totaled $403 million which is up $176 million from the projected $228 million. Insurance tax cash receipts totaled $572 million which is down $32 million from the projected total of $604 million. Tax cash receipts from alcoholic beverage, tobacco taxes, pooled money interest receipts totaled $193 million which is down $61 million from their projected totals. You may view the bulletin here. -19 here page for updates. The LAO has been releasing a series of reports regarding Federal actions affecting California related to developments around COVID-19. View here. 5Ʃ͵ ağƩƉ DŷğƌǤ ƦķğƷĻ {ĻƦƷĻƒĬĻƩ ЋЋͲ ЋЉЋЉ Dr. Ghaly Going to update on numbers and important messages on supporting older Californians Invite Dr. Erica Pan to help walk through the data Pan 2,630, 7-day average 3,473 14-day test positivity 3% Testing must be timely and equitable Turnaround time is 24-48 hours Laboratories are reporting 69% in one day and 90% in two days New testing turnaround website Recommends prioritizing all population tiers equally Every county assigned to tier based on test positivity, including metrics from the last three weeks Ghaly There were previously issues with turnaround time with testing Have focused on making testing more available with shorter turnaround times Helps the individual being tested and with contact tracing Focused on changing our prioritization of all tiers to be tested If things go to where we need to revise that we now have a system where we can do that The concept of slow and stringent is where we started many weeks ago Widespread, substantial, moderate, and minimal tiers Will focus on counties making meaningful movement in the tiering system We urge you to go to our COVID website so you can get all the information on the tiers and where the counties are Wanted to stick to our framework for three weeks We are announcing a move, working with counties and local sector leaders, about allowing nail salons to work in the purple tier Looking at their operations and the number of steps they can take to mitigate risk New counties in red: Alameda, Riverside, San Luis Obispo, San Mateo, Solano New counties in Orange: El Dorado, Lassen, Nevada New county in yellow: Mariposa This is a proof point that as counties are able to move, we see them moving at all levels of transmission Good news all around but really a reminder that despite this downward trajectory we cannot drop our guard Had discussions with a number of counties on making sure the data trends are improving We are seeing across the nation a spread in some states and a second wave in Europe Flu season is right around the corner Discussions on how our facilities are conducting flu vaccinations Preparing for flu in our hospitals and emergency rooms Identify when you can get your flu shot Check county and state CDPH website to see where you can get low or no cost flu vaccine Continue to wear your mask and keep it on longer than you think you would normally to help us stop the spread Continue to maintain 6 feet distance Wash your hands and minimize mixing Some of those are severe enough to need to be hospitalized but not as much when it comes to death Threat is greater for them to spread to a vulnerable population AP Is the state prepared to step up enforcement if businesses move to open more quickly than state guidance allows? There was some kind of rally in front of Fresno City Hall yesterday with businesses threatening to reopen Ghaly Been working with a number of counties to ensure we do all we can to get transmission down In the case of Fresno and some other counties in the Central Valley and across we are seeing improvements That should be a proof point that the business owners doing the right things getting transmission down more communities and businesses opening safely When enforcement is appropriate, we need to take steps to enforce these guidelines and this entire framework when being outdoors is more challenging and when the flu is rearing its head KPBS San Diego is staying in the red tier after having a week of purple data Did the state make any exemptions for San Diego State students? County officials have been asking for that Ghaly We did not -term trend We included the San Diego State numbers in all of our calculations Working with the county so we all understood the data and where the county landed in the framework We look at their data the same way we look at the data for all the counties across the state ABC 10 San Diego has been straddling that substantial and widespread tiers What conversations have you had with county leaders? What do you see when looking at their data? Ghaly We see them hovering between red and purple We continue to have conversations We are seeing what the state can do to help the county And seeing what San Diego is doing around places like San Diego State to curtail and limit transmission Those convos have been positive Working to ensure that the state is receiving all the data Our framework is the framework and we are going to continue to follow it We felt, not because of a subjective opinion, that we built a process that was based on the concrete data we received Will continue to look at this Kaiser Health News Can you comment on the CDC guidance that was issued and then pulled back? How does that impact the guidance that the state has put out? Ghaly We talk about this on an ongoing basis to make sure we are following the science The bottom line is that the same protective measures are important, and we need to continue Between droplets and the smaller particles is that there is a lot of space in between, it lives on a continuum Keeping our guard up, indoor and outdoor, and foregoing some of our indoor activities are important If we see an important proof point in the science to radically change our guidance, we would do so San Diego Union Tribune I just wanted to get clarification San Diego is in the red tier this week so would they need two consecutive purple tier weeks to fall down San Diego is not going to be accountable for their purple score last week? Ghaly We look at two consecutive weeks Not two out of three but two consecutive weeks Want to make sure we understand what the trends of transmission are The counties do a loot with contact tracing and supportive isolation to be able to find those cases and do something about it to control transmission San Diego is at zero weeks of moving backward Sac Bee I asked you a couple weeks ago when you would see evidence that the new tier system is indeed working and is better understood Is there evidence that this system is working better for counties? If so, what evidence would you point to Ghaly We think it is a clearer way to communicate Clear metrics and cutoffs and guidance on which sectors can operate Clearer than our first framework The continued reduction in our metrics while some sectors increase their operations is a very clear proof point that we an have this stringent and slow reopening of our economic sectors Will reserve final judgement for a couple weeks Want to see Labor Day data and how things go as more sectors start to expand operations We had counties move from all of the different tiers into a less restrictive tier this week And we anticipate that we may see more of that next week CalMatters Can we get an update on contact tracing efforts? Just last month counties were reporting a backlog of cases From the long wait time to a lack of staff Is the improved test turnaround time allowing counties to better move on contact tracing? Is this in part contributing to the decreasing case rate? Ghaly Wanted to bring cases down to reach an equilibrium where counties can do investigation and reach a number of contacts A vast majority of the counties are staffed with disease investigation and contact tracingstaff to not only reach out to those cases, upwards of 95% of cases in some counties within 24 hours Want them to have the resources and supports to isolate effectively Central Valley counties working with those dollars and getting them into supportive isolation entities Need the resources to provide real resources so that individuals who are able to isolate top have all that they need to support them and their families Those efforts are making the kind of difference Ventura County Star At the Ventura Board of Supervisors meeting there was a discussion about for adjustment that would enable them to the meet the standards for the red metric County leaders said today they were told that would not immediately happen Can you explain the situation? Ghaly As many counties do, they reached out to discuss some of the trends they are seeing It was a really good convo about some of the tremendous efforts in Ventura just like I hear about in other counties The focus on populations that have been disproportionately impacted the tremendous effort with state and county sponsored sites for testing throughout that county My message to Ventura County is we have our framework and we are seeing improvements, but we have our framework and believe that it is working We think it is working and XXXX When is the health equity metric coming? When it might be attainable in the tier system and could we see counties go backward once that metric is introduced Ghaly We continue to work with our counties to get this metric right Such an important metric both for COVID but health equity in general The disproportionate impacts on certain groups of individuals is real So many counties are making efforts around focusing on equity We believe that we are going to find a metric that can be implemented so each county can be successful Need to be able to facilitate the forward movement through the tiers because of that focus on populations that are disproportionately represented in the data today Politico they can survive operating at such decreased capacity How are you working with the business community to make sure they continue working with you? Feel like the pushback from the nail salon industry impacted how that played out Ghaly Not just through HHS but a number of our agencies have had ongoing interactions with a number of different business sectors on what steps can be taken Many of the resources that flow through business are also a matter of public health We saw transmission in spring and early summer we saw transmission increase rapidly That pushed some businesses to move to shut their doors or shrink operations from purple to red but orange to red and orange to yellow Seeing more movement and we are working with our counties and business leaders to see how we can get those numbers to drop and not move backward We expect to be able to continue to work with them, so we get through the fall and flu seasons SF Chronicle A lot of local officials in SF had expressed confidence that the county would move into the orange tierto have happened today What do those convos look like? Ghaly When a county requests we take a close look at their data because it might impact their tier assignment, we do that We received that request from SF and are working to make sure we have accurate data and that the tier assignment is accurate CBS San Diego Are you finding a 7-day lag is on test case rates is effective? st San Diego has been below 7.0 since August 31 Certainly would have put it into the purple tier before Ghaly We landed on a 7-day lag for a number of reasons Want data to be current and reflect what is happening currently and allow us to catch data that might be lagging We see that this approach allows us to capture a very high percentage of all the relative data We believe that we have chosen something that allows us to have complete data We want to look at actual levels of transmission with the data September 2020 Economic Update The U.S. unemployment rate fell from 10.2 percent in July to 8.4 percent in August 2020 and is now 4.9percentage points above the pre-pandemic level of 3.5 percent in February. The U.S. labor force participation rate rose 0.3 percentage point to 61.7 percent and civilian employment rose by 3.8 million to 147.3 million in August. Compared to the 164.5 million in the February labor force, 89.5 percent were employed in August. The U.S. gained 1.4 million jobs in August after 4.8 million and 1.8 million jobs were added in June and July, respectively. This followed 22.2 million jobs lost in March and April. L ABOR M ARKET C ONDITIONS to 11.4 percent in August after reaching an average of 15.9 percent in the second quarter and a 13.5-percent rate in July. The unemployment rate is now 0.9 percentage point lower than The Great Recessionpeak in March 2010. Civilian employment increased by 291,700 people (1.8percent) while the labor force shrank by 117,100 people (-0.6 percent) to 18.7 million. California labor force participation decreased 0.3 percentage point to 59.9 percent. Compared to the 19.5 million in the February labor force, 16.6 million people, or 84.9 percent were employed in August. The state gained 101,900 nonfarm payroll jobs in August, bringing the total jobs recovered since May to 885,700, roughly one-third of the 2.6 million jobs employment remains 1.7 million jobWhile six out of the 11 major industry sectors added jobs in August, all 11 major industry sectors remained below February levels: leisure and hospitality (656,800 fewer jobs in August than in February); trade, transportation and utilities (216,000); professional and business services (169,600); educational and health services (169,400); government (140,300); other services (130,900); manufacturing (96,500); information (77,200); construction (57,600); financial activities (14,600); and mining and logging (1,200). B UILDING A CTIVITY California housing units authorized by building permits totaled 115,600 units in July 2020 (seasonally-adjusted annualized rate), up 54.4 percent from June 2020 but down 6.6 single-family units increased by 24.2 percent from June to 61,800 units and multifamily units increased by 114.1 percent to 53,800 units. Year-to-date, authorized residential housing units averaged 95,900 (down 10.3 percent from the same period in 2019), split into 51,800 single-family units (down 4.8 percent) and 44,200 down 4.4 percent from June 2020 but -billion valuation. Year-to-date, nonresidential building valuation averaged $23.8 billion, down 33.5 percent from the same period in 2019. R EAL E STATE The California existing single-family median home sales price reached a new record-high of $706,900 in August, exceeding $700,000 for the first time in history, and surpassing the previous record set in July 2020 by 6.1 percent. This is up 21.9 percent from February 2020 and up 14.6 percent from August 2019. Statewide sales volume rose by 6.3 percent to 465,400 unitsthe highest sales volume since May 2010 and 10.4 percent higher than February 2020 level. M ONTHLY C ASH R EPORT Preliminary General Fund agency cash receipts for the first two months of the fiscal year were $4.544 billion above the 2020-21 Budget Act forecast of $35.604 billion. Cash receipts for the month of August were $1.632 billion above the forecast of $8.17 billion. Preliminary General Fund agency cash receipts for the entire 2019-20 fiscal year were $1.135 billion above the 2020-21 Budget Act forecast of $123.395 billion, or 0.9-percentage point above forecast. Total collections for March through August 2020 were down by 5 percent from the same period in 2019. Personal income tax cash receipts to the General Fund for the first two months of the fiscal year were $3.646 billion above forecast. Cash receipts for August were $975 million above the forecast of $4.999 billion. Withholding cash receipts were $837 million above the forecast of $4.799 billion. Other cash receipts were $359 million higher than the forecast of $647 million. Refunds issued in August were $203 million higher than the expected $358 million. Proposition 63 requires that 1.76 percent of total monthly personal income tax collections be transferred to the Mental Health Services Fund (MHSF). The amount transferred to the MHSF in August was $19 million more than the forecast of $88 million. Sales and use tax cash receipts were $1.176 billion above forecast for the first two months of the fiscal year. Cash receipts for August were $574 million above the forecast of $2.086 billion. August cash receipts include a portion of the final payment for the second quarter sales, which was due July 31. August cash receipts also include the first prepayment for third quarter sales. Corporation tax cash receipts for the first two months of the fiscal year were $176 million below the forecast of Estimated payments were $133 million above the forecast of $117 million, and other payments were $56million higher than the $172 million forecast. Total refunds for the month were $14 million higher than the forecast of $61 million. Insurance tax cash receipts for the first two months of the fiscal year were $31 million below forecast. Insurance tax cash receipts for August were $32 million below the forecast of $604 million. Cash receipts from alcoholic beverage, tobacco taxes, and pooled money interest were $23 million below forecast for the first two months of the fiscal year, and were $4 million below the forecast of $58 million for the month of August. $57 million below the forecast of $196 million for the month of August. The Year-To-Date figures shown below Finance Bulletin.