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HomeMy WebLinkAbout11.06.20 FW_ TFG Special Report_ Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview From:Ring, Brian To:Alpert, Bruce;Bennett, Robin;Clerk of the Board;Connelly, Bill;Cook, Holly;Lambert, Steve;Lucero, Debra; McCracken, Shari;Paulsen, Shaina;Pickett, Andy;Ring, Brian;Ritter, Tami;Rodas, Amalia;Sweeney, Kathleen; Teeter, Doug Cc:Pickett, Andy;Snyder, Ashley Subject:FW: TFG Special Report: Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview Date:Friday, November 6, 2020 4:50:03 PM Attachments:TFG Special Report, Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview.pdf FYI – update from our federal lobbyist. Brian Ring Assistant Chief Administrative Officer Administration 25 County Center Drive, Oroville, CA 95965 From: Kristi More <kmore@tfgnet.com> Sent: Friday, November 6, 2020 3:44 PM To: Andy Newsum (anewsum@bcag.org) <anewsum@bcag.org>; Ring, Brian <bring@buttecounty.net>; Jon Clark (jonclark@bcag.org) <jonclark@bcag.org>; Taggart, Kevin <ktaggart@buttecounty.net>; Pickett, Andy <APickett@buttecounty.net> Cc: Stephanie Missert <SMissert@tfgnet.com>; Zachary Israel <ZIsrael@tfgnet.com> Subject: TFG Special Report: Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview ATTENTION: This message originated from outside Butte County. Please exercise judgment before opening .. attachments, clicking on links, or replying. All – We still don’t have official results of the Presidential election yet, but attached is a TFG Special Report providing insight and analysis of the upcoming Congressional lame duck session as well as an overview of the November 3, 2020 election results. While election results are still developing, and will continue to do so over the coming days and weeks, this Special Report includes up-to-date details regarding next steps in the presidential election, the make-up of the House and Senate in the th new 117 Congress, and Congressional party leader and committee leadership races. We will provide updates on the election as results are finalized along with additional insight on how those results will impact the lame duck session. As you will see by the report, a lot could be in play. Realistically, there won’t be a lot of time (and maybe even political will) to accomplish anything beyond FY 2021 appropriations and (hopefully) another coronavirus relief bill. WRDA and NDAA may slip on to the schedule because of their historic bipartisan nature, but there is just too much uncertainty right now for us to know for sure. If you have any questions, please let me know. Have a great weekend! I know it’s been a long week for everyone. ~Kristi Kristi More TFG logo 202.454.3950 OFFICE NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC 20006 TheFergusonGroup.com Special Report Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview November 6, 2020 Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview Table of Contents Introduction 1 Lame Duck Preview 1 FY 2021 Appropriations ............................................................................................................................................. 1 COVID Relief............................................................................................................................................................... 2 Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) ............................................................................................................. 2 National Defense Authorization Act .......................................................................................................................... 3 Energy Package .......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Broadband and Telecommunications ........................................................................................................................ 4 Policing Overhaul ....................................................................................................................................................... 5 Tax Extenders............................................................................................................................................................. 5 2020 Election Results Overview 7 The Administration .................................................................................................................................................... 7 The Electoral College.. 8 The House of Representatives ................................................................................................................................... 9 The Senate ............................................................................................................................................................... 10 Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview 1 Introduction th The Senate will return to Washington on Monday, November 9, and the House of Representatives (House) will thth return on November 16 to begin the final legislative days of the outgoing 116 Congress also referred to as a th lame duck session. Congress is expected to adjourn by December 18. With this schedule, the Senate will be in session for 24 legislative days and the House for 13 legislative days. With limited workdays, there is a narrow timeframe for Congress to pass several important pieces of legislation, including final FY 2021 appropriations bills, another COVID relief package, the Water Resources Development Act, the FY 2021 National Defense Authorization Act, and more. This TFG Special Report provides an overview of the major remaining legislative items Congress may tackle before wrapping up this session of Congress. rd TFGs Special Report also provides an initial overview of the November 3 election results and their impact on the House and Senate, Congressional leadership, and key committee leadership races. TFG will continue to provide updates as we learn more about the election results and subsequent committee assignments/leadership. We will also provide additional updates on lame duck activities between now and when Congress adjourns. Lame Duck Preview FY 2021 Appropriations To date, Congress has not enacted any of the 12 annual appropriations bills. The House passed 10 of 12 spending bills in July through two spending packages; however, the Senate has not advanced any of its bills through the st appropriations committee. On October 1, Congress passed and President Trump signed into law a Continuing th Resolution (CR), P.L. 116-159, extending government funding at current FY 2020 levels through December 11. H.R. 7608: The -bill spending package that covers Agriculture-FDA, Interior-Environment, Military Construction-VA, and State and Foreign Operations spending. The House passed this package by a 224-189 vote on th July 24 with no Republican support. A TFG Brief on H.R. 7608 is available here. Senate Republicans disagreed with dments to include in the bill additional coronavirus relief and policing and law enforcement policies. President Trump threatened to veto the spending package. H.R. 7617: The -bill appropriations package includes Commerce-Justice-Science, Defense, Energy and Water, Financial Services, Labor-HHS-Education, and Transportation-HUD spending. H.R. 7617 passed by a 217-197 st vote on July 31 without any Republican support. This bill includes a few major policy provisions, such as a requirement for local governments to institute policing policy changes, including a chokehold ban; and an additional $210 billion in emergency spending on top of regular appropriations. A TFG Brief on H.R. 7617 is available here. Senate Republicans opposed the additional coronavirus response funding and policing measures included in the bill. The White House also threatened to veto this measure, criticizing the emergency spending and policing policy riders. Lame Duck Outlook: House and Senate disagreements over both the spending numbers and policy provisions will require considerable negotiation between Congressional leaders in order to reach a compromised final spending package and one that will be signed into law by the President. It is expected that the current ongoing negotiations Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview 2 over the next coronavirus relief package will take priority over passing FY 2021 appropriations bills. In turn, there is a significant likelihood that Congress will pass another CR to fund the federal agencies into 2021. COVID Relief The election results will directly impact ongoing discussions and negotiations related to the next coronavirus relief package, but exactly how so remains unclear. So far this year, Congress has passed three major coronavirus relief packages: (1) the Coronavirus Preparedness th and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2020 (P.L. 116-123), which was signed into law on March 6; (2) th the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (P.L. 116-127), which was signed into law on March 18; and the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act (P.L. 116-136), which was signed into law on March th 27. Since March, numerous proposals have been introduced and considered in both the House and Senate, but months of negotiation between Congressional leaders and the White House has yet to result in a fourth coronavirus relief package, despite all parties agreeing that another relief package is needed. Lame Duck Outlook: Right now, it is unclear if Congress will be able to approve another coronavirus relief package before the end of the year. The elections themselves slowed down negotiations between Congressional leaders and the White House, but in the days leading up to Election Day, it seemed several major issues were already th hindering the ongoing negotiations. On October 29, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who has been leading the negotiations on behalf of Congressional Democrats, sent a letter rincipal relief package negotiator, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, stating that Congress is still awaiting draft legislative language local funding, schools, child care, earned income and child tax credits, unemployment insurance, OSHA, and liability. In response, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressed that the White House has been negotiating in good faith on these provisions, b including additional funding for state and local governments. th On November 4, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said he wants to pass a coronavirus relief package by the end of the year, but he maintained that the House-passed HEROES Act (H.R. 6800) (including the slimmed-version totaling $2.2 trillion passed on October 1) is too costly and includes too many provisions that are not directly related to the pandemic. Many Congressional Republicans have expressed concern with the cost of not only with the HEROES Act and HEROES 2.0 but also with the most recent proposal from the White House, which totaled approximately $1.8 trillion. House Speaker Pelosi and Congressional Democrats remain committed to approving another package by the end of the year, as does the White House, but it is unclear if all sides will be able to come to an agreement on both cost and policy in short order, especially as many election outcomes are still unclear. Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) House and Senate WRDA bills would authorize the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) to carry out a two-year roadmap of water infrastructure projects. H.R. 7575: The Water Resources Development Act would make available $10 billion from the Harbor l Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview 3 as other ports. It would direct funds for 38 new projects and 35 studies that include repairing locks and dams on inland waterways to boosting coastal shorelines against flooding invasive species. H.R. 7575 was introduced by Representatives DeFazio (R-OR), chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and Sam Graves (R-MO, and the measure passed th the House on July 29 by voice vote. S. 3591: would authorize $17 billion for Corps water infrastructure projects. S. 3590: The Drinking Water Infrastructure Act would authorize $2.5 billion for programs to clean up manmade chemicals known as PFAS (Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) and other contaminants, among other programs, and would reauthorize a safe drinking water emergency fund. Senators John Barrasso (R-WY), chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works (EPW) Committee, and Senator Tom Carper (D-DE), the committees ranking Democrat, introduced S. 3590 and S. 3591. The EPW th Committee approved both bills on May 6 with no dissenting votes. Lame Duck Outlook: House and Senate staff have been informally negotiating and seeking to reconcile differences ind the scenes for many weeks. Leaders in both chambers remain optimistic that floor time can be found for a vote on agreed-upon legislation before the end of the calendar year. National Defense Authorization Act Another major bill Congress addresses annually is the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which sets policy and authorizes funding for the Defense Department. The committees of jurisdiction have said their goal is to have a final $740.5 billion NDAA by December. The House and Senate both passed their respective bills (H.R. 6395 and S. 4049) in July, but the two chambers have yet to negotiate a compromise bill. One key issue is differing proposals in both bills to remove the names of Confederate leaders from military installations. President Donald Trump has threatened to veto the House-passed bill in part because of its requirement that the Pentagon start -year window; however, Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK), Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said he would remove this provision from a final bill, despite the provision being approved by both chambers in July. Lame Duck Outlook: Congress has passed an NDAA annually for the last 59 years, making it highly likely that the FY 2021 NDAA will be signed into law by the end of the year. Energy Package S. 2657: Introduced by Senators Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Joe Manchin (D-WV), the Advanced Geothermal Innovation Leadership Act of 2019 includes over fifty energy efficiency, cybersecurity, and climate-oriented measures that have bipartisan Senate support. The measure would revamp U.S. energy policy for the first time in roughly a dozen years and includes a bill (S. 1602) to launch energy storage demonstration projects introduced by Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME). The energy bill, which enjoys broad bipartisan support in Senate was brought to the floor in March of this year, but progress stalled over an amendment to curb hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) that have an outsized impact in warming Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview 4 the planet. Negotiations have continued between Sens. John Kennedy (R-LA) and Tom Carper (D-DE), the -WY), who opposes it. Differences remain. There is no House companion to the Senate energy package, though House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Frank Pallone (D-NJ) was reported to be considering a series of energy and climate measures. Lame Duck Outlook: While the Senate legislation has broad bipartisan support, the outlook appears dim for any major energy and climate legislation in the lame duck. Broadband and Telecommunications th Numerous bills were introduced in the 116 Congress that provide additional funding for the deployment of broadband networks, a largely bipartisan goal that is supported by Congressional leadership, chairs and members of both the House and Senate Commerce Committees, and individual members representing unserved areas. Estimates for connecting the unserved, especially in rural America, range between $80 - $100 billion. In addition to many smaller broadband funding bills, the Moving Forward Act (H.R. 2) (the House-passed infrastructure package) and the HEROES Act (the House-passed relief package) provided significant funding for the deployment of high-speed networks. In June, House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC) introduced the Accessible, Affordable Internet for All Act (H.R. 7302), which was included in the Democrats infrastructure bill H.R. 2. Clyburn proposed $100 billion to close the digital divide, including $80 billion for network deployment, with $5 billion going to low-interest broadband deployment loans, $5 billion for remote learning, $1 billion to establish state broadband grant programs, and funding to subsidize broadband service for low-income Americans. In May, the House passed the HEROES Act. The $3 trillion package would provide $1.5 billion to close the funding Wi-Fi hot spots and connected devices for students and library patrons and $4 billion for emergency home connectivity needs, among other broadband-related funding. In late September, House leadership released a trimmed-down version of the HEROES Act that later passed the House. The $2.2 trillion 3 billion for emergency home connectivity needs, and $24 billion for broadband mapping. Senate Republicans introduced in late July the Health, Economic Assistance, Liability Protection, and Schools (HEALS) Act. Neither the $1 trillion HEALS Act , estimated to cost between $500 billion to $700 billion, were considered for floor votes. And neither bill offered targeted funding to increase broadband access. Lame Duck Outlook: Whether a bipartisan and bicameral agreement to include broadband funding in a COVID relief package can be reached during the lame duck depends on the ultimate size and scope of that package. Prior to the election, Senate Republicans favored a much smaller package ($500 billion to $1 trillion), while the Administration supported a $1.9 billion effort, and Democratic leadership sought a $2.4 trillion deal. On the appropriations front, the House Appropriations Committee reported a FY 2021 Agriculture appropriations bill that includes an increase of $615 million for rural broadband over FY 2020 levels. The Senate Appropriations Committee has not released or marked up any of its FY 2021 bills yet. Earlier this year, the Broadband Deployment Accuracy and Technological Availability (DATA) Act (S. 1822) was signed into law. It requires the Federal Communications Commission to issue final rules for collecting granular data from providers on the availability and quality of broadband, which it did in July by adopting the Digital Opportunity Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview 5 Data Collection Report and Order. The FCC has not yet been appropriated funding to implement the data collection, so at a minimum, Congress will likely address this issue during the lame duck, in addition to possibly targeting more broadband funding. Policing Overhaul Members of both the House and Senate have introduced multiple pieces of legislation over the past few months aimed at restructuring the policy and funding mechanisms associated with U.S. law enforcement, specifically policing. A description of these bills and their status can be found here. The Administration also took action on law enforcement reform this summer, and President Trump signed an executive order in June calling for certain changes to U.S. law enforcement. The Order called for the creation of a national police misconduct database and would allow some Justice Department grants to be used for use of force and de-escalation training. It also called for social workers and mental health professionals to partner with police departments. Lame Duck Outlook: While law enforcement and police reform remain a priority, it is unlikely there will be any specific action taken during the lame duck by Congress or the Administration. Tax Extenders During the lame duck session, Congress will need to address tax extenders and include them in any finalized appropriations package or separate extender legislation. These individual and business entity tax breaks are typically extended for one or two years instead of on a permanent basis and many of them are expiring at the end of this year. Popular individual tax extenders include the deduction for private mortgage insurance (PMI) and the above-the-line deduction for tuition and fees. Popular business tax extenders include the recovery or expensing of business income investments and incentives for empowerment zone investments. The Continuing Further Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2020, which was signed into law in December 2019, extended almost three dozen regularly expiring provisions, many retroactively to 2018. The following is a list of expiring tax extenders for 2020 based on several sources, including the Congressional Research Service (CRS): Individual Tax Provisions The exclusion from income of the discharge of indebtedness on a principal residence The ability to treat mortgage insurance premiums as qualified residence interest The 7.5% of AGI limitation on the itemized deduction for medical expenses The above-the-line deduction for qualified tuition and related expenses Credit for health insurance costs of certain low-income individuals Special Business Investment (Cost Recovery) Provisions Special expensing rules for certain film, television, and live theatrical productions: Accelerated depreciation for property: o Seven-year recovery period for motorsports entertainment complexes; o Three-year depreciation for racehorses two years or younger; and Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview 6 o Accelerated depreciation for business property on an Indian reservation Economic Development Provisions Empowerment zone tax incentives New Markets Tax Credit (subject to carryover of excess allocations through 2025) American Samoa economic development credit Other Business-Related Provisions Indian employment tax credit Mine rescue team training credit Employer tax credit for paid family and medical leave Work opportunity tax credit Look-through treatment of payments between related controlled foreign corporations Provisions modifying excise taxes on wine, beer, and distilled spirits Energy Tax Incentives Credit for nonbusiness energy property Energy efficient commercial building deduction Credit for constructing new energy efficient homes Credits for fuel cell motor vehicles and two-wheel plug-in electric vehicles Credit for alternative fuel vehicle refueling property Credit for second generation biofuel production Credit for production of Indian coal Beginning of construction date for renewable power facilities eligible for the electricity production credit or investment credit Foreign Taxes Look-through rule for controlled foreign corporations Lame Duck Outlook: Rallying Congressional support for specific tax break provisions can be a difficult proposition. Nevertheless, there has been traditional bipartisan support for extending many of the provisions listed above. That effort will likely be tagged onto FY 2021 appropriations or COVID relief during the lame duck. Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview 7 2020 Election Results Overview The Administration th As of 5pm ET on November 6, neither President Donald Trump nor former Vice President Joe Biden had officially clinched the 270 electoral votes needed to be elected President of the United States, according to the Associated th Press. However, by the morning of November 6, Vice President Biden had achieved growing leads in both Pennsylvania and Georgia, and maintained his lead in Nevadaif he ultimately were to win at least one of these three states, Biden would clinch a majority of the Electoral College (i.e., 270+ electoral votes) and officially become the President-elect, and Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) would officially become the Vice President-elect. If Biden ultimately wins, he will spend the remaining 75 days prior to Inauguration Day selecting Cabinet appointees, political appointees, and key White House personnel for the entirety of the federal government. Additionally, he and his staff will develop policy implementation plans and a budget and management agenda, among other transition plans. th On November 6, the Georgia Secretary of State announced that the state would hold a recount of votes for the presidential race since the results are so close. There will also likely be additional numerous legal challenges and lawsuits filed by both the Trump and Biden campaigns regarding mail-in ballots and other election procedures, elongating the final certification of the results in critical swing states. Following Election Day, the states are to count and certify popular vote results according to their respective statutory and procedural requirements. When the states have completed their vote counts and ascertained the official results, the U.S. Code requires each states governor to prepare, p documents known as Certificates of Ascertainment of the vote. The certificates must list the names of the electors chosen by the voters and the number of votes received in the popular election results, also the names of all losing candidates, and the number of votes they received. Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview 8 Here are the dates for when the presidential results must be finalized and certified in key swing states: Georgia: November 20, 2020 Pennsylvania and Michigan: November 23, 2020 North Carolina: November 24, 2020 Arizona: November 30, 2020 Nevada and Wisconsin: December 1, 2020 The Electoral College According to the Congressional Research Service, the U.S. Code provides that if election results are contested in any state, and if the state, prior to Election Day, has enacted procedures to settle controversies or contests over electors and electoral votes, and if these procedures have been applied, and the results have been determined six then these results are considered to be conclusive, and will apply in the counting of the electoral votes. This date, known as line, falls on December 8, 2020. The governor of any state where there was a contest, and in which the contest was decided according to established state procedures, is required to send a certificate describing the form and manner by which the determination was made to the Archivist of the United States as soon as practicable. th On December 14, the 538 members of the Electoral College will meet in their respective state capitals and the District of Columbia and vote by paper ballot, casting one ballot for President and one for Vice President. The electors count the results and then sign six certificates, each of which contains two lists, one of which includes the electoral votes for the President, the other, electoral votes for the Vice President, each of which includes the names of persons receiving votes and the number of votes cast for them. These are known as Certificates of the Vote, which the electors are required to sign. They then pair the six Certificates of Ascertainment provided by the state governors with the Certificates of the Vote, and sign, seal, and certify them. The six certificates are then distributed by registered mail as follows: (1) one certificate to the President of the U.S. Senate (the Vice President); (2) two certificates to the secretary of state (or equivalent officer) of the state in which the electors met; (3) two certificates to the Archivist of the United States; and (4) one certificate to the judge of the U.S. district court of the district in which the electors met. On January 6, 2021, the Senate and House of Representatives will assemble at 1pm ET in a joint session at the U.S. Capitol, in the House chamber, to publicly count the electoral votes and declare the results. The Vice President presides as President of the Senate. The Vice President opens the certificates and presents them to four tellers, two from each chamber. The tellers read and make a list of the returns. When the votes have been ascertained and counted, the tellers transmit them to the Vice President. If one of the tickets has received a majority of 270 or more electoral votes, the Vice President announces the results, which shall be deemed a sufficient declaration of the persons, if any, elected President and Vice President While the tellers announce the results, Members may object to the returns from any individual state as they are announced. Objections to individual state returns must be made in writing by at least one Member each of the Senate and House of Representatives. If an objection meets these requirements, the joint session recesses and the two houses separate and debate the question in their respective chambers for a maximum of two hours. The two houses then vote separately to accept or reject the objection. They then reassemble in joint session and announce the results of their respective votes. vote must be approved by both houses in order for any contested votes to be excluded, an unlikely scenario since there will be a Democratic majority in the th House and a (likely) Republican majority in the Senate at the time of the joint session on January 6. Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview 9 On January 20, 2021, the President and Vice President will be inaugurated. The Twentieth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution set the date for inaugurations as January 20, beginning in 1937. Since 1981, the ceremony has, with one exception, been held on the West Front of the Capitol. The Vice President takes the oath first, followed at noon by the President. This will mark the beginning of the new Administration. The House of Representatives rd On November 3, Republicans picked up at least seven seats in the House by defeating seven incumbent House Democrats, including Reps. Abby Finkenauer (D-IA), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), Donna Shalala (D-FL), Collin Peterson (D-MN), Kendra Horn (D-OK), Joe Cunningham (D-SC), and Xochitl Torres Small (D-NM). No incumbent th House Republican running for re-election lost their race. As of November 6, there are still 29 House races that are uncalled; however, Democrats are projected to keep their House majority, albeit a smaller one than the 232-seat thth majority currently held in the 116 Congress. Most likely, the new House Democratic majority for the 117 Congress (i.e., 20212022) will be somewhere between 224227 seats, with the new House Republican minority likely being somewhere between 208211 seats. Because the Democrats will continue to hold a majority in the House, all the Chairmanships of all 22 standing Committees will continue to be held by Democrats. As a majoritarian institution, the policy agenda of the House th for the 117 Congress will be controlled by the House Democratic majority, through its elected leadership, including the Speaker of the House, House Majority Leader, House Majority Whip, House Assistant Speaker, House Democratic Caucus Chairman, and House Democratic Caucus Vice Chairman, in addition to other leadership roles. th The House Democratic party leaders for the 117 Congress will be selected by the new House Democratic Caucus th during the week of November 16. Most likely, the top three positions will be maintained by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), and House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC), while several of the other leadership positions are open and will be competitive. While the new House Democratic Caucus will internally decide their pick for Speaker of the House in mid-November, the formal vote for Speaker will th take place on January 3, 2021, on the first day of the 117 Congress, by all 435 members of the House. Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview 10 th The top leadership of the House Republican Conference for the 117 Congress are also likely to remain the same th for the 117 Congress, with Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as House Minority Leader, Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) as House Minority Whip, Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) as House Republican Conference Chairwoman, and Rep. Gary Palmer (R-AL) as House Republican Policy Committee Chairman. The internal House GOP Conference leadership elections will likely take place in mid-November or early December. Congressional committee assignments and leadership positions will be decided by each party caucus steering th committee for the new 117 Congress. Other than open Chairmanships for the House Appropriations Committee and the House Agriculture Committee, all the current Democratic Chairs of every other House committee are likely th to remain in their positions for the new 117 Congress. The top contenders for the open Chairmanship of the House Appropriations Committee are Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), and Debbie Wasserman Shultz (D-FL). The top contenders for the open Chairmanship of the House Agriculture Committee are Reps. David Scott (D-GA), Jim Costa (D-CA), and Marcia Fudge (D-OH). th Most of the current Republicans who serve as Ranking Members of House committees in the 116 Congress will th remain in these roles in the new 117 Congress. However, there are openings for the top GOP Ranking Member slots on several committees, including the House Natural Resources Committee, with Reps. Bruce Westerman (R- AR) and Paul Gosar (R-AZ) actively running; the House Energy and Commerce Committee, with Reps. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), Michael Burgess (R-TX), and Bob Latta (R-OH) actively running; the House Agriculture Committee, with Reps. GT Thompson (R-PA), Austin Scott (R-GA), and Rick Crawford (R-AR) actively running; the House Armed Services Committee, with Reps. Joe Wilson (R-SC), Mike Turner (R-OH), and Mike Rogers (R-AL) actively running; the House Veterans Affairs Committee, with Reps. Jack Bergman (R-MI) and Mike Bost (R-IL) actively running; the House Budget Committee, with Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH) actively running; and the House Small Business Committee, with Reps. Troy Balderson (R-OH) and Kevin Hern (R-OK) actively running. The Senate Senate Balance of Power Source: The Associated Press as of Nov. 5 as of 3 p.m. EST Note: Yellow indicates independents caucus with the Democrats; gray indicates uncalled races Bloomberg Government Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview 11 rd On November 3, three incumbent Senators running for re-election were defeated: Sens. Doug Jones (D-AL), Cory Gardner (R-CO), and Martha McSally (R-AZ), resulting in a net gain of one seat for Senate Democrats, from 47 to th 48. The four remaining Senate races whose results are still not yet official, as of November 6, are: Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who has a narrow but steady lead over Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham; Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK), who has a lead over his Independent opponent Al Gross; and the two races in Georgia: Sens. David Perdue (R-GA) and Kelly Loeffler (R-GA). All other incumbent Senate Democrats and Republicans who ran for re-election in 2020 won their races. Because Sens. Perdue and Loeffler did not reach at least 50 percent in their respective races on Election Day, they will each participate in a runoff election on January 5, 2021 against their Democratic opponents, Jon Ossoff and the Rev. Raphael Warnock, respectively. Assuming Sens. Tillis and Sullivan ultimately prevail in their races, the Senate th GOP will have 50 seats in the upper chamber leading up to the January 5 runoff elections in Georgia, and Senate Democrats will have 48 seats. If Joe Biden and Kamala Harris ultimately win the Presidency and Vice Presidency, control of the Senate will depend on the outcomes of the two runoff elections in Georgia. If both Ossoff and th Warnock were to win, the Senate would consist of a 50-50 split for the 117 Congress between Republicans and Democrats, with Kamala Harris serving as the tie-breaking vote, handing Democrats the Senate majority. However, th if one or both Democratic candidates in Georgia lose on January 5, the Senate GOP will have a majority of 51 or 52 seats for 20212022. th There are seven Senate freshmen entering the 117 Congress that will succeed either retiring or defeated Senators. They are: businessman and diplomat Bill Hagerty (R-TN), former Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO), astronaut Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM), former Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), Rep. Roger Marshall (R-KS), and retired college football coach Tommy Tuberville (R-AL). The current Senate Republican and Democratic party leadership positions will very likely remain the same for the th 117 Congress, with Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY) remaining in the top positions for the Senate Republicans and Democrats, respectively. Sens. John Thune (R-SD), John Barrasso (R-WY), Roy Blunt (R- MO), and Joni Ernst (R-IA) will likely remain in their roles as Senate Republican Whip, Senate Republican Conference Chairman, Senate Republican Policy Committee Chairman, and Vice Chair of the Senate Republican Conference, respectively. Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL), Patty Murray (D-WA), Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Elizbeth Warren (D-MA), Mark Warner (D-VA), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Joe Manchin (D-WV), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) will likely remain in their roles as Senate Democratic Whip, Senate Assistant Democratic Leader, Chairwoman of the Policy and Communications Committee, Vice Chairs of the Senate Democratic Conference, Chair of the Steering Committee, Chairman of Outreach, Vice Chairman of the Policy and Communications Committee, and Secretary of the Senate Democratic Conference, respectively. New Senate committee leadership positions for Republicans include: Sen. John Boozman (R-AR) as the top Republican on the Senate Agriculture Committee; Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) as the top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee; Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) as the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee; Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) as the top Republican on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee; Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) as the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee; Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) as the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee; Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) as the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee; Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) or Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) as the top Republican of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee; Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) as the top Republican of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee; Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) as the top Republican of the Senate Indian Affairs Committee; Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) or Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) as the top Republican of the Lame Duck Preview & 2020 Election Results Overview 12 Senate Small Business Committee; and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) as the top Republican of the Senate Intelligence Committee. The only new Senate committee leadership position for Democrats is Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI), who will serve as the top Democrat on the Senate Indian Affairs Committee.